Mortality and perforated peptic ulcer: a case for risk stratification in elderly patients

In a consecutive series of 284 patients with a perforated peptic ulcer (229 pyloroduodenal, 55 gastric) there was a 26 per cent hospital mortality rate, and patients aged greater than or equal to 70 years (n = 176) had a significantly higher mortality rate (34 per cent) than patients aged less than 70 years (14 per cent, P less than 0.001). Multiple clinical variables were significantly more common in the elderly group of patients (65 per cent), in those having non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroid therapy (56 per cent), in patients where there is an absence of a previous dyspeptic history (69 per cent), and when risk factors such as delayed presentation (33 per cent) and the presence of shock on admission to hospital (27 per cent) are present. Definitive operations (vagotomy or gastrectomy) had an increased mortality rate in the elderly (P = 0.018). Risk scores based upon the presence of shock, delayed presentation or concurrent medical illness could have predicted 87 per cent of postoperative deaths in elderly subjects, and it is suggested that risk stratification and greater caution in the use of definitive operations for perforated ulcer may result in a reduction in the high mortality rate in elderly subjects.