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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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Risk management model of winter navigation operations
Osiris A Valdez Banda1, Floris Goerlandt1, Vladimir Kuzmin2
1Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Marine Technology), Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Heikinkatu 7, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland.
Marine Pollution Bulletin
|May 22, 2016
Summary
Winter maritime operations in the Gulf of Finland face collision risks. A new model analyzes oil spill probability from ship collisions, finding independent navigation and convoys pose higher risks.
Area of Science:
- Maritime safety
- Risk management
- Environmental protection
Background:
- Winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland is governed by the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System.
- Accidental ship collisions pose the greatest risk, potentially leading to oil spills during icy conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a risk management model for winter maritime operations.
- To analyze the probability of oil spills resulting from ship collisions.
Main Methods:
- The study adapted the International Maritime Organization's Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework.
- A Bayesian Network model was developed to analyze collision and oil spill probabilities.
Main Results:
- Independent ship navigation and convoys present a higher probability of oil spills.
- Minor oil spills are the most probable outcome, while major spills are unlikely but possible.
Conclusions:
- The developed model provides insights into managing winter navigation risks.
- Understanding operational risks is crucial for preventing environmental damage from potential oil spills.
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