Permutation Tests of Hierarchical Cluster Analyses of Carrion Communities and Their Potential Use in Forensic...

Forensic entomologists can use carrion communities' ecological succession data to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI). Permutation tests of hierarchical cluster analyses of these data provide a conceptual method to estimate part of the PMI, the post-colonization interval (post-CI). This multivariate approach produces a baseline of statistically distinct clusters that reflect changes in the carrion community composition during the decomposition process. Carrion community samples of unknown post-CIs are compared with these baseline clusters to estimate the post-CI. In this short communication, I use data from previously published studies to demonstrate the conceptual feasibility of this multivariate approach. Analyses of these data produce series of significantly distinct clusters, which represent carrion communities during 1- to 20-day periods of the decomposition process. For 33 carrion community samples, collected over an 11-day period, this approach correctly estimated the post-CI within an average range of 3.1 days.