How Has Elderly Migration Changed in the Twenty-First Century? What the Data Can-and Cannot-Tell Us.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Gerontology
• Public Policy

Background:

• Interstate elderly migration significantly impacts state tax policies and healthcare systems.
• Understanding recent trends in elderly migration is crucial but challenging due to data limitations.
• The transition from the U.S. Census long form (CLF) to the American Community Survey (ACS) complicates migration research.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze changes in interstate elderly migration in the 21st century.
• To identify methodological differences between the CLF and ACS for migration data.
• To develop strategies for reconciling migration data from the CLF and ACS.

Main Methods:

• Comparative analysis of migration data from the U.S. Census long form (CLF) and the American Community Survey (ACS).
• Evaluation of alternative data sources like the Current Population Survey (CPS) and Statistics of Income (SOI) program.
• Focus on methodological differences, including residence definition and survey timing, between data sources.

Main Results:

• The ACS can produce comparable elderly migration data, showing continued geographic patterns and new 2000s trends.
• Methodological changes in the ACS prevent direct calculation of a comparable national migration rate.
• Alternative data sources like CPS and SOI have significant limitations for studying elderly migration.

Conclusions:

• The ACS is a viable, though not perfectly comparable, source for studying elderly migration patterns post-2000.
• Reconciliation strategies are needed to effectively use ACS data alongside historical CLF data.
• The Current Population Survey (CPS) may be necessary for tracking national trends in elderly migration rates.