Prognostic value of morphometry in papillary thyroid carcinoma

The value of morphometric analysis in addition to standard prognostic indicators was studied in 28 cases of papillary thyroid carcinoma. Standard features included age, sex, lymph node status, tumor size, and encapsulation. The mean follow-up was 47 months (maximum, 140 months). Recurrences were documented in six patients at a mean time of 34 months; five patients recurred with distal metastases and one patient recurred with local disease. Univariate analysis most closely associated tumor recurrence with nuclear anisotropism (the standard deviation of the estimated nuclear area [ENASD]) and tumor size. With forward stepwise incremental analysis, the value of tumor size was lost and only the ENASD and the cellularity mean index (CMI), defined as the percentage of tumor volume composed of tumor cells, significantly correlated with recurrence. Fifty-five percent of patients with an ENASD greater than 17 microns2 and a CMI greater than 40% developed recurrence as compared with 5% of patients with lesser values (P = .0001). Morphometric analysis may significantly contribute to the role of histopathology in the evaluation of papillary thyroid carcinoma and may also provide information regarding prognosis not obtained by standard methods.