[Calculation on ecological security baseline based on the ecosystem services value and the food security]

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science, Ecological Economics, Land Use Planning

Background:

• Rapid coastal economic development in Hebei Province has led to significant land use changes.
• These land use transitions pose a threat to regional ecological security and necessitate baseline assessments.
• Understanding the interplay between ecological security and food security is crucial for sustainable development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the linkage between ecological security and food security in Huanghua City.
• To calculate the ecological security baseline based on ecosystem service value and food safety standards.
• To provide a basis for regional ecological protection and rehabilitation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Calculated ecosystem service value (ESV) per unit area for different land use types.
• Determined the contribution rates of various ecological functions.
• Established baselines for grain production, grain output value, and overall ecosystem service value.

Main Results:

• Ecosystem service value per unit area ranked: wetland > water > garden > cultivated land > meadow > other land > salt pans > saline-alkali land > construction land.
• Nutrient recycling and water conservation were the highest contributing ecological functions.
• Established baselines: grain production (0.21 kg·m⁻²), grain output value (0.41 yuan·m⁻²), ESV (21.58 yuan·m⁻²), total ESV (4.244 billion yuan).
• Projected ecological security to reach a critical low by 2081, indicating potential ecosystem collapse.

Conclusions:

• Huanghua City's ecological security is projected to decline significantly by 2081 without intervention.
• Land use zoning (core protection, buffer, restoration, human activity) is proposed based on ecological status.
• The study provides a framework for integrating ecological and food security assessments for coastal regions.