Macroeconomic conditions and alcohol-impaired driving

Several distinct bodies of literature indicate that economic factors influence alcohol consumption and driving behavior, including: econometric studies of effects of income and price on drinking, studies of booming and depressed communities, studies of the effects of recession on mental health and studies of the effects of the business cycle on driving patterns. The core research questions of this study were: (1) Does the state of the economy affect the rate of fatal motor vehicle crashes involving drinking drivers? and (2) Is the relationship between the state of the economy and motor vehicle fatalities mediated by effects of economic conditions on amount of alcohol consumed and amount of driving? Data were collected on multiple indicators of economic conditions, alcohol consumption, vehicle miles traveled and rates per population of fatal crashes in the United States on a monthly basis from 1976 through 1985. Nonlinear time-series modeling methods were used to estimate both direct and indirect effects and both coincident and lagged relationships. Results showed that economic conditions significantly influence fatal crash rates both directly and via changes in aggregate amount of alcohol consumed and aggregate amount of driving. However, these interrelationships at multiple lags are complex and not yet fully understood.