Critical behavior in a stochastic model of vector mediated epidemics
E Alfinito1, M Beccaria2,3, G Macorini2,3
1Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Innovazione, Università del Salento, Lecce, Italy.
Scientific Reports
|June 7, 2016
Summary
This study introduces a stochastic lattice model to understand epidemic dynamics. The model reveals a critical transition line, similar to dynamical percolation, separating epidemic spread from containment under limited resources.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Statistical Physics
Background:
- Human populations exhibit extreme vulnerability to pathogens, leading to direct illnesses and indirect impacts on resources.
- Epidemics spread via vectors, with their propagation influenced by host and vector physiological parameters.
- Understanding epidemic evolution, whether uncontrollable or transient, is crucial for public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze epidemic behavior using a stochastic lattice model.
- To capture critical phenomena in epidemic spread within finite time and resource constraints.
- To investigate the transition between epidemic spreading and non-spreading phases.
Main Methods:
- Development and analysis of a stochastic lattice model.
- Application of novel analytical techniques.
- Conducting direct numerical simulations.
Main Results:
- The model exhibits a critical line of transition.
- This line delineates epidemic spreading and non-spreading phases.
- Identified critical exponents consistent with dynamical percolation.
Conclusions:
- The stochastic lattice model effectively captures critical epidemic behavior.
- Epidemic dynamics show similarities to percolation theory under specific conditions.
- The findings offer insights into controlling epidemic propagation with limited resources.
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