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Published on: June 16, 2011
Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter
William J M Probert1, Katriona Shea2, Christopher J Fonnesbeck3
1Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Eberly College of Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Biology and Intercollege Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, 208 Mueller Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Leicestershire LE12 5RD, United Kingdom.
Clearly defined objectives are crucial for effective disease control strategies. This study shows how to analyze multiple objectives and models to find optimal actions during outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Decision science
- Mathematical modeling
Background:
- Disease control requires clear objectives for optimal strategy development.
- Multiple stakeholders and models complicate outbreak response decision-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate the importance of clearly defined management objectives in disease outbreak control.
- To provide a framework for analyzing control actions across multiple objectives and models.
Main Methods:
- Applied formal decision-analytic methods to a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak scenario.
- Utilized outputs from five rigorously studied FMD simulation models.
- Compared relative rankings and performance of control actions across various objectives and metrics.
Main Results:
- Control actions vary significantly based on the chosen success metric and ranking statistic.
- Highlighted discordance among different management objectives and simulation models.
- Provided a structured approach to compare control strategies.
Conclusions:
- Framing clear management objectives is imperative for effective disease control.
- The presented analysis facilitates informed discourse among policymakers, modelers, and stakeholders.
- This work bridges disease control modeling with structured decision-making frameworks.
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