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Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population.

Giacomo Tavecchia1, Simone Tenan2, Roger Pradel3

  • 1Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès, 21, 07190, Esporles, Spain.

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Summary

Dispersal, or immigration, can prevent populations from following climate-driven changes, even when their local birth and death rates are climate-dependent. Ignoring this movement can lead to inaccurate climate change impact predictions.

Keywords:
capture-recaptureglobal climatic indicesimmigrationpopulation growth rateresilienceshearwater

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Climate change necessitates accurate population response forecasting.
  • Models often link demographic rates to climate variables, but may overlook dispersal.
  • Interpopulation dispersal is crucial for understanding population dynamics under climate variability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of interpopulation dispersal on population responses to climate variability.
  • To determine if immigration can decouple population growth from climate-driven vital rates.
  • To highlight potential errors in climate change impact assessments for mobile organisms.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized individual-based data from Scopoli's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea).
  • Compared population growth rate estimated with local climate-dependent parameters (λᵢ) versus one accounting for immigration (ρᵢ).
  • Analyzed the relationship between vital rates, climatic variables, and population growth.

Main Results:

  • Local climate-driven population growth rate (λᵢ) varied with climatic variables.
  • Population growth rate accounting for immigration (ρᵢ) did not show climate-driven variation.
  • Dispersal effectively decoupled population growth from climate influences on vital rates.

Conclusions:

  • Immigration can buffer populations against climate-driven fluctuations, even with climate-sensitive vital rates.
  • Models ignoring dispersal may produce misleading projections of climate change impacts.
  • Caution is advised when assessing climate effects on open populations of highly mobile species.