Zika Virus, Elevation, and Transmission Risk.

Area of Science:

• Medical Entomology
• Epidemiology
• Climate Science

Background:

• The Zika virus outbreak in the Americas poses risks, particularly for pregnant women, due to its association with birth defects.
• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) established travel guidelines based on elevation, defining areas below 2000m as high-risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the distribution of Zika virus vector mosquitoes.
• To evaluate the influence of climatic conditions, elevation, latitude, and air traffic on vector distribution.
• To assess the efficacy of current CDC travel guidelines.

Main Methods:

• Geographic distribution analysis of primary Zika virus vector mosquito species.
• Correlation of vector distribution with climatic variables, elevation, and latitude.
• Examination of air traffic connectivity to the United States.

Main Results:

• Zika virus vectors are primarily tropical and subtropical species.
• Climate varies significantly with elevation and latitude, impacting vector habitats.
• A single elevation criterion is insufficient for predicting Zika transmission risk.

Conclusions:

• Current Zika virus travel guidelines based solely on elevation are inadequate.
• Latitude should be incorporated into risk assessment alongside elevation.
• Comprehensive risk assessment requires integrating ecological, climatic, and human factors.