Comparison of Risk Predicted by Multiple Norovirus Dose-Response Models and Implications for Quantitative Microbial...

The application of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to understand and mitigate risks associated with norovirus is increasingly common as there is a high frequency of outbreaks worldwide. A key component of QMRA is the dose-response analysis, which is the mathematical characterization of the association between dose and outcome. For Norovirus, multiple dose-response models are available that assume either a disaggregated or an aggregated intake dose. This work reviewed the dose-response models currently used in QMRA, and compared predicted risks from waterborne exposures (recreational and drinking) using all available dose-response models. The results found that the majority of published QMRAs of norovirus use the ₁ F₁ hypergeometric dose-response model with α = 0.04, β = 0.055. This dose-response model predicted relatively high risk estimates compared to other dose-response models for doses in the range of 1-1,000 genomic equivalent copies. The difference in predicted risk among dose-response models was largest for small doses, which has implications for drinking water QMRAs where the concentration of norovirus is low. Based on the review, a set of best practices was proposed to encourage the careful consideration and reporting of important assumptions in the selection and use of dose-response models in QMRA of norovirus. Finally, in the absence of one best norovirus dose-response model, multiple models should be used to provide a range of predicted outcomes for probability of infection.