Pilot study of the completeness of notification of adult tuberculosis in Athens, Greece

Sotiria Chest Diseases Hospital (SCDH), a referral hospital in Athens, Greece, 2012.

To assess the completeness of the mandatory notification system for tuberculosis (TB) at the SCDH, and compare the observed and estimated annual incidence rates.

Record linkage and the capture-recapture method were applied. Data sources were the registers from the national mandatory notification register (Hellenic Centre for Disease Control and Prevention [HCDCP]), the National Reference Laboratory for Mycobacteria (NRLM) and SCDH records. The log-linear model with the lowest Akaike information criterion was selected as the most valid statistical model.

The observed and estimated TB under-reporting rates at the national level were respectively 55% (95%CI 49-60) and 75% (95%CI 71-78). The observed completeness of the HCDCP, NRLM and SCDH registers were respectively 45% (95%CI 40-51), 66% (95%CI 61-71) and 36.5% (95%CI 31-42). The estimated TB incidence rate was 15 cases per 100 000 (range 13-19/100 000), compared to the 4.9/100 000 rate officially notified.

Adult TB incidence has been largely underestimated, and the TB burden is likely to be much higher than officially notified in our setting. A thorough review of the notification system should be carried out. The implementation of a network-based notification system and retraining of all relevant personnel is advised.