Promoting Value for Consumers: Comparing Individual Health Insurance Markets Inside and Outside the ACA's Exchanges

The new health insurance exchanges are the core of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) insurance reforms, but insurance markets beyond the exchanges also are affected by the reforms. This issue brief compares the markets for individual coverage on and off of the exchanges, using insurers' most recent projections for ACA-compliant policies. In 2016, insurers expect that less than one-fifth of ACA-compliant coverage will be sold outside of the exchanges. Insurers that sell mostly through exchanges devote a greater portion of their premium dollars to medical care than do insurers selling only off of the exchanges, because exchange insurers project lower administrative costs and lower profit margins. Premium increases on exchange plans are less than those for off-exchange plans, in large part because exchange enrollment is projected to shift to closed-network plans. Finally, initial concerns that insurers might seek to segregate higher-risk subscribers on the exchanges have not been realized.