Economic Effects of 1978 Tabas Earthquake (Iran)

Natural disasters are one of the most important adverse health events. The earthquake that happened in the city of Tabas in 1978 was ranked third in terms of number of deaths caused by natural disasters over the past 100 years in Iran. This study was aimed to evaluate the economic and human capital consequences of earthquake in Tabas district.

We used a two percent random sample of Iran Census Dataset from 2006 to run a difference-in-difference study. The difference-in-difference methodology was used to evaluate (1) the mean changes in variables including years of schooling and wealth; (2) the odds changes in primary school completion and literacy of people born (5 or 10 years) post-event versus (5 or 10 years) pre-event in Tabas compared with the same values for those born in the same period of time in the control districts.

Differential increase in years of schooling for being born 10 years after the earthquake versus in 10 years before earthquake in Tabas was one-third of a school year less than in the control districts. There were 89.5% and 65.4% decrease in odds that an individual is literate, and 0.26 and 0.104 average decrease in the SES index for those born in Tabas in periods of 5 and 10 years, respectively, compared with control districts.

Tabas earthquake had negative long-term effects on human capital and wealth. This study can help official authorities to promote educational and economic plans and to implement comprehensive reforms in earthquake-stricken areas.