Accuracy of Answers to Cell Lineage Questions Depends on Single-Cell Genomics Data Quality and Quantity

Advances in single-cell (SC) genomics enable commensurate improvements in methods for uncovering lineage relations among individual cells, as determined by phylogenetic analysis of the somatic mutations harbored by each cell. Theoretically, complete and accurate knowledge of the genome of each cell of an individual can produce an extremely accurate cell lineage tree of that individual. However, the reality of SC genomics is that such complete and accurate knowledge would be wanting, in quality and in quantity, for the foreseeable future. In this paper we offer a framework for systematically exploring the feasibility of answering cell lineage questions based on SC somatic mutational analysis, as a function of SC genomics data quality and quantity. We take into consideration the current limitations of SC genomics in terms of mutation data quality, most notably amplification bias and allele dropouts (ADO), as well as cost, which puts practical limits on mutation data quantity obtained from each cell as well as on cell sample density. We do so by generating in silico cell lineage trees using a dedicated formal language, eSTG, and show how the ability to answer correctly a cell lineage question depends on the quality and quantity of the SC mutation data. The presented framework can serve as a baseline for the potential of current SC genomics to unravel cell lineage dynamics, as well as the potential contributions of future advancement, both biochemical and computational, for the task.