Victim Characteristics, Situational Factors, and the Lethality of Urban Gun Violence

The objective of this study is to hone in on the contextual, social, and individual characteristics that influence lethal outcomes across shootings. Although most criminological research focuses on differential outcomes for gun violence relative to nongun violence, we argue that great insight can be drawn through examining shootings in isolation. We focus on five ways that shooting outcomes vary: the number of shots fired, the number of times the victim was hit, where the victim was hit, the number of victims that were hit, and whether the shooting resulted in a fatality. Building on the adversary effects hypothesis and public health research on the impact of gunshot wound volume and location, we examine the factors that account for variation across shooting outcomes. Our analysis of data from the Rochester Shooting Database suggests that both adversary effects and random factors influence shooting outcomes. In addition, the results also reveal that adversary effects are more important during some stages of a shooting than others. The implications of these findings are discussed.