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Estimation of dengue infection for travelers in Thailand
1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University, Thailand; The Center of Excellence in Mathematics, CHE, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
Background:
Dengue infection among travelers has become one of the most public health concerns in present days. The importation of dengue virus can initiate an outbreak in non-endemic regions. Thailand is one of the countries topping the list of highest dengue infections in travelers.
Method:
This study estimates the risk of dengue infection among travelers during their visit in Thailand by using a mathematical model with seasonal variations.
Results:
The risk of dengue infection in high dengue season is 2.50-4.07 times that on low dengue season depending on the locations. The average daily risk of dengue infections of Thailand per 100,000 travelers is 2.14 and 7.03 for low and high dengue season, respectively. The highest rate of infection is Rayong and the lowest rate is Sing Buri. Several popular tourist provinces are high dengue endemic areas.
Conclusions:
This study provides useful information on dengue infection among travelers. The main factors are the time of arrival in the year, the duration of stay of the travelers and the locations where the travelers spend most of their time.
