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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models
Ryo Oizumi1, Toshikazu Kuniya2, Yoichi Enatsu3
1Director General Office for Policy Planning and Evaluation, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Japan, 1-2-2, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8916, Japan.
Abstract:
Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity.
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