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Using expert opinion to quantify unmeasured confounding bias parameters
Soodabeh Navadeh1,2, Ali Mirzazadeh1,3, Willi McFarland3,4
1Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Summary
Expert opinion successfully quantified bias parameters for sensation seeking, a confounder in the association between alcohol use and condomless anal sex among men who have sex with men (MSM). This method aids in adjusting for confounding in epidemiological studies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Behavioral Science
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Confounding by sensation seeking can bias estimates of the association between alcohol use and condomless anal sex among men who have sex with men (MSM).
- Quantifying bias parameters is crucial for accurate epidemiological inference, especially in HIV prevention research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a method for quantifying bias parameters using expert opinion.
- To assess sensation seeking as a confounder in the relationship between alcohol use and condomless anal sex among MSM.
Main Methods:
- An online survey collected input from 41 epidemiologists and behavioral scientists.
- Eleven experts provided quantitative estimates for parameters related to sensation seeking and condomless anal sex in HIV-positive and HIV-negative MSM.
Main Results:
- Expert opinion yielded estimates for the proportion of high sensation seeking among heavy and low-level drinking MSM, stratified by HIV status.
- The risk ratio for condomless anal sex associated with sensation seeking was quantified for both HIV-positive and HIV-negative MSM.
Conclusions:
- Expert opinion provides a feasible and efficient method for deriving bias parameters.
- This approach can be used to quantify and adjust for hypothesized confounding in epidemiological studies, as demonstrated in the context of alcohol use and sexual risk among MSM.
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