Predictive toxicology today: the transition from biological knowledge to practicable models

Toxicity tests in animals are grounded on two main assumptions: first, the effects observed in laboratory animals can be extrapolated to humans, especially when adjusted for body surface area; second, high-dose exposure in animals is essential to identify potential human hazards from lower doses. This is based on the quantal dose-response concept, which faces the challenge of extrapolating results from relatively few test animals to much larger human populations. For example, a 0.01% incidence...

Studies that assess how a drug is absorbed, distributed, metabolized, and excreted (ADME) at toxic doses are termed toxicokinetics. Understanding toxicokinetics helps predict adverse drug reactions (ADRs) and manage toxicity in humans.Toxicokinetics differs from pharmacokinetics mainly in the dose levels studied, with toxicokinetics focusing on higher toxic doses. The kinetics at these levels can be non-linear due to altered physiological processes. Toxicodynamics examines the relationship...

Physiological and compartmental models are valuable tools used in studying biological systems. These models rely on differential equations to maintain mass balance within the system, ensuring an accurate representation of the dynamic processes at play.
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.

Pharmacokinetic models utilize mathematical analysis to achieve a detailed quantitative understanding of a drug's life cycle within the body. They are instrumental in simulating a drug's pharmacokinetic parameters, predicting drug concentrations over time, optimizing dosage regimens, linking concentrations with pharmacologic activity, and estimating potential toxicity.
There are three primary types of models: empirical, compartment, and physiological. Empirical models, with minimal...

Pharmacodynamic (PD) responses describe the interaction between a drug and its biological target, culminating in a physiological effect. These responses can be classified into different types: continuous variables, such as blood glucose levels; categorical outcomes, like survival rates; and time-to-event metrics, such as disease progression. Understanding and modeling PD responses are critical for optimizing drug efficacy and safety.PD models describe the relationship between drug concentration...

Mechanistic models, a category encompassing both physiological and compartmental modeling, differ from empirical models' approaches to incorporating known factors about the systems being modeled. Empirical models describe data with minimal assumptions, while mechanistic models aim to provide a robust description of available data by specifying assumptions and integrating known factors about the system. Compartmental analysis is a key example of a mechanistic model in pharmacokinetics and...