Value of improved lipid control in patients at high risk for adverse cardiac events

Lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) is suboptimally used in patients with hyperlipidemia in the 2 highest statin benefit groups (SBGs), as categorized by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association. This study estimated the social value of reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels by 50% for patients in SBGs 1 and 2 who have been treated with standard LLT but have not reached LDL-C goal, as well as the potential value of PCSK9 inhibitors for patients in these groups.

Simulation model.

We used National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) and US Census data to project the population of SBGs 1 and 2 in the time period 2015 to 2035. We used insurance claims data to estimate incidence rates of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), and NHANES with National Vital Statistics data to estimate cardiovascular disease mortality rates. Using established associations between LDL-C and MACE risk, we estimated the value of reducing LDL-C levels by 50%. We incorporated results from a meta-analysis to estimate the value of PSCK9 inhibitors.

Among those treated with LLT with LDL-C > 70 mg/dL in SBGs 1 and 2, the cumulative value of reducing LDL-C levels by 50% would be $2.9 trillion from 2015 to 2035, resulting primarily from 1.6 million deaths averted. The cumulative value of PCSK9 inhibitors would range from $3.4 trillion to $5.1 trillion (1.9-2.8 million deaths averted), or $12,000 to $17,000 per patient-year of treatment.

Lowering LDL-C in high-risk patients with hyperlipidemia has enormous potential social value. For patients in these high-risk groups, PCSK9 inhibitors may have considerable net value depending on the final prices payers ultimately select.