A Predictive Model for Diabetic Foot Ulcer Outcome: The Wound Healing Index

Objective: To develop a healing index for patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) for use in clinical practice, research analysis, and clinical trials. Approach: U.S. Wound Registry data were examined retrospectively and assigned a clear outcome (healed, amputated, etc.). Significant variables were identified with bivariate analyses. A multivariable logistic regression model was created based on significant factors (p < 0.05) and tested on a hold-out sample of data. Out of 13,266 DFUs from the original dataset, 6,440 were eligible for analysis. The logistic regression model included 5,239 ulcers, of which 3,462 healed (66.1%). The 10% validation sample utilized 555 ulcers, of which 377 healed (67.9%). Results: Variables that significantly predicted healing were as follows: wound age (duration in days), wound size, number of concurrent wounds of any etiology, evidence of bioburden/infection, patient age, Wagner grade, being nonambulatory, renal dialysis, renal transplant, peripheral vascular disease, and patient hospitalization for any reason. Innovation: We present a validated stratification system, previously described as the Wound Healing Index (WHI), which predicts healing likelihood of patients with DFUs, incorporating patient- and wound-specific variables. Conclusion: The DFU WHI is a comprehensive and user-friendly validated predictive model for DFU healing. It can risk stratify patients enrolled in clinical research trials, stratify patient data for quality reporting and benchmarking activities, and identify patients most likely to require costly therapy to heal.