Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model

Area of Science:

• Geotechnical Engineering
• Civil Engineering
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Gravity dam stability analysis faces challenges due to uncertainties in design parameters and data.
• Existing risk assessment methods struggle to fully characterize fuzzy factors and practical risk likelihood.
• A more comprehensive approach is needed to address both randomness and fuzziness in dam stability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To apply credibility theory to the risk analysis of gravity dam stability.
• To develop a novel method for representing and calculating uncertainties in dam stability.
• To provide a feasible and reliable risk assessment tool for gravity dam engineering.

Main Methods:

• Credibility theory was applied to model gravity dam stability as a hybrid event.
• A credibility distribution function was developed to represent uncertainty factors.
• Monte Carlo simulation was integrated for risk calculation and analysis.

Main Results:

• The proposed method successfully calculated the stability failure risk for a gravity dam section.
• The approach effectively accounted for both fuzzy and random uncertainties in the analysis.
• The resulting risk assessment provides a suitable index value for practical use.

Conclusions:

• Credibility theory offers a feasible and effective approach for gravity dam stability risk analysis.
• The developed method accurately reflects the influence of multiple uncertainty types.
• The risk assessment index is suitable for practical engineering decision-making in dam safety.