Epidemiological impact of achieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets for HIV care in India: a modelling study

Recent UNAIDS '90-90-90' targets propose that to end the HIV epidemic by 2030, 90% of persons living with HIV (PLWH) worldwide should know their diagnosis, 90% of diagnosed PLWH should be on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 90% of PLWH on ART should be virally suppressed by 2020. We sought to quantify the epidemiological impact of achieving these targets in India.

We constructed a dynamic-transmission model of the Indian HIV epidemic to project HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths that would occur in India over 15 years. We considered several scenarios: continuation of current care engagement (with early ART initiation), achieving 90-90-90 targets on time and delaying achievement by 5 or 10 years.

In the base case, assuming continuation of current care engagement, we project 794 000 (95% uncertainty range (UR) 571 000-1 104 000) HIV infections and 689 000 (95% UR 468 000-976 000) AIDS-related deaths in India over 15 years. In this scenario, nearly half of PLWH diagnosed would fail to achieve viral suppression by 2030. With achievement of 90-90-90 targets, India could avert 392 000 (95% UR 248 000-559 000) transmissions (48% reduction) and 414 000 (95% UR 260 000-598 000) AIDS-related deaths (59% reduction) compared to the base-case scenario. Furthermore, fewer than 20 000 (95% UR 12 000-30 000) HIV infections would occur in 2030. Delaying achievement of targets resulted in a similar reduction in HIV incidence by 2030 but at the cost of excess overall infections and mortality.

India can halve the epidemiological burden of HIV over 15 years with achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Reaching the targets on time will require comprehensive healthcare strengthening, especially in early diagnosis and treatment, expanded access to second-line and third-line ART and long-term retention in care.