Evaluation of prediction strategy and care coordination for COPD readmissions

Factors that influence the likelihood of readmission for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients and the impact of posthospital care coordination remain uncertain. LACE index (L = length of stay, A = Acuity of admission; C = Charlson comorbidity index; E = No. of emergency department (ED) visits in last 6 months) is a validated tool for predicting 30-days readmissions for general medicine patients. We aimed to identify variables predictive of COPD readmissions including LACE index and determine the impact of a novel care management process on 30-day all-cause readmission rate.

In a case-control design, potential readmission predictors including LACE index were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression for 461 COPD patients between January-October 2013. Patients with a high LACE index at discharge began receiving care coordination in July 2013. We tested for association between readmission and receipt of care coordination between July-October 2013. Care coordination consists of a telephone call from the care manager who: 1) reviews discharge instructions and medication reconciliation; 2) emphasizes importance of medication adherence; 3) makes a follow-up appointment with primary care physician within 1-2 weeks and; 4) makes an emergency back-up plan.

COPD readmission rate was 16.5%. An adjusted LACE index of ≥ 13 was not associated with readmission (p = 0.186). Significant predictors included female gender (odds ratio [OR] 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.91, p = 0.021); discharge to skilled nursing facility (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.36-6.75, p = 0.007); 4-6 comorbid illnesses (OR 9.21, 95% CI 1.17-76.62, p = 0.035) and ≥ 4 ED visits in previous 6 months (OR 6.40, 95% CI 1.25-32.87, p = 0.026). Out of 119 patients discharged between July-October 2013, 41% received the care coordination. The readmission rate in the intervention group was 14.3% compared to 18.6% in controls (p = 0.62).

Factors influencing COPD readmissions are complex and poorly understood. LACE index did not predict 30-days all-cause COPD readmissions. Posthospital care coordination for transition of care from hospital to the community showed a 4.3% reduction in the 30-days all-cause readmission rate which did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.62).