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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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Weekly Fluctuations in Risk Tolerance and Voting Behaviour.

Jet G Sanders1, Rob Jenkins1

  • 1University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom.

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|July 9, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Human risk tolerance follows a weekly cycle, decreasing from Monday to Thursday. This pattern may influence election outcomes, as UK votes are often held on Thursdays, the lowest point for risk-taking.

Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Social Psychology
  • Political Science

Background:

  • Risk tolerance is a key factor influencing decision-making and behavior.
  • Understanding cyclical patterns in risk perception is crucial for interpreting human actions.
  • Previous research has not extensively explored the weekly temporal dynamics of risk tolerance.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the existence and nature of a weekly cycle in human risk tolerance.
  • To examine the potential impact of this cycle on political decision-making, specifically voting behavior.
  • To determine if the day of the week influences risk-taking propensity in large-scale public opinion.

Main Methods:

  • A behavioral experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) to directly measure risk tolerance.

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  • Analysis of large-scale public opinion data from 70 polls for the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum (N=81,564).
  • Analysis of large-scale public opinion data from 77 polls for the 2016 UK European Union membership referendum (N=149,064).

    • Main Results:

    • All three studies consistently showed a decrease in risk tolerance from Monday to Thursday.
    • Risk tolerance rebounded to higher levels on Fridays across all observed datasets.
    • The findings suggest a potential systematic risk-averse bias in voting behavior when elections are held on Thursdays.

    Conclusions:

    • Human risk tolerance exhibits a significant and predictable weekly cycle.
    • The timing of elections and referendums, particularly on Thursdays, may systematically influence outcomes due to reduced risk tolerance.
    • This weekly cycle has implications for understanding human decision-making and the predictability of public opinion and voting behavior.