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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Uncertainty analysis for an effluent trading system in a typical nonpoint-sources-polluted watershed
Lei Chen1, Zhaoxing Han1,2, Guobo Wang1
1State Key Laboratory of Water Environment, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P.R. China.
Scientific Reports
|July 14, 2016
Summary
Uncertainty in nonpoint sources (NPSs) makes effluent trading systems (ETSs) less cost-effective. Shifting abatement efforts and considering best management practices (BMPs) are crucial for reliable water quality management.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Water Resource Management
- Environmental Economics
Background:
- Conventional effluent trading systems (ETSs) linking point sources (PSs) and nonpoint sources (NPSs) face reliability issues due to NPS uncertainties.
- Understanding the impact of uncertainties in water quality management is critical for effective environmental policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To establish a new framework for PS-NPS ETSs.
- To quantify the impacts of uncertainties in water assimilative capacity (WAC), NPS emissions, and measurement effectiveness on ETS functionality and cost-effectiveness.
Main Methods:
- Developed a novel framework for analyzing PS-NPS ETSs.
- Quantified the effects of uncertainties in WAC, NPS emissions, and measurement accuracy.
- Analyzed error transitivity in different ETS approaches, including WEFZ-based ETS.
Main Results:
- NPS uncertainties reduce the cost-effectiveness of PS-NPS ETSs across most hydrological conditions.
- Stochastic factors cause a shift from water assimilative capacity (WAC) constraints to water quality constraints.
- Emission uncertainty disproportionately affects PSs, while increased emission or abatement uncertainty shifts abatement efforts from NPSs to PSs.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights the significant impact of uncertainty on PS-NPS ETS functionality.
- Results suggest a trade-off between confidence levels and abatement efforts in ETS design.
- Recommendations include considering structural best management practices (BMPs) for NPSs when emissions are high.
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