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Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

Sebastián Duchêne1,2,3, Jemma L Geoghegan1,2, Edward C Holmes1,2

  • 1Marie Bashir Institute of Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Charles Perkins Centre, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.

Bioinformatics (Oxford, England)
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Estimating pathogen evolutionary rates using molecular clocks is crucial. Different methods yield varying results, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate clock models for accurate evolutionary rate estimation in viruses and bacteria.

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Virology
  • Genomics

Background:

  • Rapid genetic evolution in pathogens like viruses necessitates accurate evolutionary rate estimation.
  • Molecular clock methods utilize pathogen sampling times to infer evolutionary rates.
  • Existing methods for rate estimation differ in handling phylogenetic uncertainty and lineage-specific rate variation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare different molecular clock methods for estimating evolutionary rates in pathogens.
  • To investigate the impact of clock models and data characteristics on rate estimates.
  • To identify factors influencing the reliability of evolutionary rate estimates from time-structured sequence data.

Main Methods:

  • Compiled 81 virus sequence datasets.
  • Estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating, and Bayesian inference.
  • Evaluated the influence of different molecular clock models (e.g., strict vs. relaxed clocks).

Main Results:

  • Rate estimates were often congruent across methods but highly dependent on the chosen clock model.
  • Relaxed-clock models generally yielded higher evolutionary rate estimates compared to strict-clock models.
  • Discrepancies were linked to among-lineage rate variation, phylogenetic uncertainty, and temporal clustering.

Conclusions:

  • The choice of molecular clock model significantly impacts evolutionary rate estimates in pathogens.
  • Testing and selecting appropriate clock models are critical for reliable evolutionary rate inference.
  • Understanding factors like rate variation and data structure improves the accuracy of molecular clock analyses.