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Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
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Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

Adam H Sobel1, Suzana J Camargo2, Timothy M Hall3

  • 1Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.

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Summary

Tropical cyclone intensity is expected to increase with climate warming. However, aerosol cooling has masked these trends historically, with future warming projected to dominate.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Meteorology
  • Oceanography

Background:

  • Global warming is projected to increase tropical cyclone intensity.
  • Historical detection of tropical cyclone intensity trends remains uncertain.
  • Greenhouse gas warming effects are currently offset by aerosol cooling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Interpret future and historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.
  • Utilize the theory of potential intensity for trend analysis.
  • Investigate the influence of climate change and aerosols on cyclone intensity.

Main Methods:

  • Applied the theory of potential intensity.
  • Analyzed climate model simulations.
  • Assessed the impact of greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing.

Main Results:

  • Potential intensity increases with warming, but aerosol cooling has largely canceled this effect historically.
  • Natural variability and poleward shifts complicate trend analysis.
  • Future greenhouse gas forcing is expected to dominate over aerosol forcing.

Conclusions:

  • Tropical cyclone intensity will substantially increase in the future without significant emissions reductions.
  • The theory of potential intensity provides a framework for understanding these trends.
  • Aerosol impacts have masked the full extent of warming-driven intensity increases to date.