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Updated: Mar 17, 2026

An Inverse Analysis Approach to the Characterization of Chemical Transport in Paints
Published on: August 29, 2014
Tracking chemicals in products around the world: introduction of a dynamic substance flow analysis model and
Li Li1, Frank Wania2
1College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, 5 Yiheyuan Road, Beijing, 100871, P.R. China; Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, 1095 Military Trail, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada.
Abstract:
Dynamically tracking flows and stocks of problematic chemicals in products (CiPs) in the global anthroposphere is essential to understanding their environmental fates and risks. The complex behavior of CiPs during production, use and waste disposal makes this a challenging task. Here we introduce and describe a dynamic substance flow model, named Chemicals in Products - Comprehensive Anthropospheric Fate Estimation (CiP-CAFE), which facilitates the quantification of time-variant flows and stocks of CiPs within and between seven interconnected world regions and the generation of global scale emission estimates. We applied CiP-CAFE to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), first to evaluate its ability to reproduce previously reported global-scale atmospheric emission inventories and second to illustrate its potential applications and merits. CiP-CAFE quantifies the pathways of PCBs during production, use and waste disposal stages, thereby deducing the temporal evolution of in-use and waste stocks and identifying their long-term final sinks. Time-variant estimates of PCB emissions into air, water and soil can be attributed to different processes and be fed directly into a global fate and transport model. By capturing the international movement of PCBs as technical chemicals, and in products and waste, CiP-CAFE reveals that the extent of global dispersal caused by humans is larger than that occurring in the natural environment. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the model output is most sensitive to the PCB production volume and the lifetime of PCB-containing products, suggesting that a shortening of that lifetime is key to reducing future PCB emissions.
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