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Development and Validation of Risk Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Events in Black Adults: The Jackson Heart
Ervin R Fox1, Tandaw E Samdarshi1, Solomon K Musani2
1Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson.
Insights
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models validated in white populations may not be ideal for black adults. Existing Framingham Risk Score and ACC/AHA risk algorithms perform well in black individuals, suggesting a unique calculator may not be needed.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is crucial for prevention.
- Existing CVD risk prediction models are primarily based on white populations.
- The applicability of these models to black adults remains uncertain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate CVD risk prediction models for black adults.
- To incorporate standard risk factors, biomarkers, and subclinical disease measures.
- To assess the performance of new models against existing algorithms.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Jackson Heart Study (JHS), a longitudinal study of 5301 black adults.
- Collected data on standard risk factors, biomarkers, and subclinical disease measures.
- Compared developed models with Framingham Risk Score (FHS) and ACC/AHA risk algorithms.
Main Results:
- A model combining standard risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide, and ankle-brachial index showed modest improvement.
- However, reclassification improvement was not substantially different from FHS or ACC/AHA algorithms.
- Models demonstrated reasonable discrimination in independent cohorts (ARIC, MESA).
Conclusions:
- Current FHS and ACC/AHA risk algorithms perform well in black individuals.
- A unique risk calculator specifically for black adults may not be necessary.
- Existing models provide valuable risk assessment for black populations.
Importance:
Cardiovascular risk assessment is a fundamental component of prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, commonly used prediction models have been formulated in primarily or exclusively white populations. Whether risk assessment in black adults is dissimilar to that in white adults is uncertain.
Objectives:
To develop and validate risk prediction models for CVD incidence in black adults, incorporating standard risk factors, biomarkers, and subclinical disease.
Design, Setting, And Participants:
The Jackson Heart Study (JHS), a longitudinal community-based study of 5301 black adults in Jackson, Mississippi. Inclusive study dates were the date of a participant's first visit (September 2000 to March 2004) to December 31, 2011. The median (75th percentile) follow-up was 9.1 (9.7) years. The dates of the analysis were August 2013 to May 2015. Measurements included standard risk factors, including age, sex, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, ratio of fasting total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, antihypertensive therapy, diabetes mellitus, and smoking; blood biomarkers; and subclinical disease measures, including ankle-brachial index, carotid intimal-medial thickness, and echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy and systolic dysfunction.
Main Outcomes And Measures:
Incident CVD event was defined as the first occurrence of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, congestive heart failure, stroke, incident angina, or intermittent claudication. Model performance was compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) CVD risk algorithm and the Framingham Risk Score (FHS) refitted to the JHS data and evaluated in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts.
Results:
The study cohort comprised 3689 participants with mean (SD) age at baseline was 53 (11) years, and 64.8% (n = 2390) were female. Over a median of 9.1 years, 270 participants (166 women) experienced a first CVD event. A simple combination of standard CVD risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide, and ankle-brachial index (model 6) yielded modest improvement over a model without B-type natriuretic peptide and ankle-brachial index (C statistic, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.83 [relative integrated discrimination improvement, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.15-0.30]). However, the reclassification improvement was not substantially different between model 6 and the ACC/AHA CVD Pooled Cohort risk equations or between model 6 and the FHS. The models discriminated reasonably well in the ARIC and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis data (C statistic range, 0.70-0.77).
Conclusions And Relevance:
Our findings using the JHS data in the present study are valuable because they confirm that current FHS and ACC/AHA risk algorithms work well in black individuals and are not easily improved on. A unique risk calculator for black adults may not be necessary.
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