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How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?
M deCastro1, M C Sousa2, F Santos1,2
1EPHYSLAB, Environmental PHYsics LABoratory, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain.
The Somali upwelling system is projected to strengthen significantly this century due to global warming, impacting monsoon rainfall. This strengthening is primarily driven by Ekman transport, with greater intensity at higher latitudes.
Area of Science:
- Oceanography
- Climate Science
- Meteorology
Background:
- The Somali upwelling system is a unique Western Boundary Upwelling System near the Equator.
- It plays a crucial role in influencing monsoon rainfall patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the intensity of the Somali coastal upwelling for the 21st century.
- To investigate the drivers of projected changes in upwelling strength.
- To assess the impact of global warming on this unique upwelling system.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) within CMIP5 and CORDEX frameworks.
- Analyzed projected changes in upwelling intensity, Ekman transport, and Ekman pumping.
- Examined projected land-sea air temperature and pressure gradients.
Main Results:
- Projected strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling across all models and scenarios, increasing with latitude.
- Upwelling intensification is greater than observed in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems.
- Strengthening is mainly attributed to Ekman transport, with Ekman pumping showing no clear trend.
- Global warming intensifies land-sea thermal and pressure gradients, supporting Bakun's hypothesis.
- Projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than offshore, particularly at higher latitudes.
Conclusions:
- The Somali upwelling system is projected to intensify significantly in the 21st century.
- This intensification is linked to global warming-induced changes in atmospheric circulation and Ekman dynamics.
- The findings highlight the system's sensitivity to climate change and its potential impact on regional rainfall.
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