"Selling smarter, not harder": Life course effects on drug sellers' risk perceptions and management

Policies undergirding the American War on Drugs assume that drug offenders respond rationally to adjustments in sanction certainty and severity. Previous studies find that instead of absolute deterrence, or the termination of criminal activity, drug offenders employ restrictive deterrence, or a variety of risk management strategies. Extant research and current drug policy both fail to examine the interaction of risk perception, management techniques, and life course events or circumstances.

This dynamic examination of apprehension avoidance strategies relies on in-depth interviews mapping out the careers of 20 drug sellers in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It examines their risk perceptions and risk management strategies and techniques, exploring rationales for shifts in offending behavior.

Respondents were highly risk-averse but used a narrow definition of sanctions relevant to shaping future offending behavior, typically making small adjustments in sales techniques. Rationales for these shifts included sanctions, personal preference, and life course events or circumstances. Only one attributed lasting desistance from offending to a sanction, although life course events such as parenthood and employment were associated with short-term and planned desistance.

The limited relevance of sanctions to offenders' thinking about risk avoidance contextualizes the widespread failure of policies designed to deter drug sales. Findings support a growing conclusion that severity of punishment is a less powerful deterrent than certainty and that adjustments in certainty after arrest are offense-specific. The relationship of life course events - especially employment - to desistance and resumed offending suggest that social policies may be more effective than criminal justice sanctions in reducing drug offending.