Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology

Background:

• Dengue virus (DENV) poses a significant global health burden, prompting the WHO to set control objectives including reduced mortality and morbidity.
• Achieving these goals requires integrated strategies, with new tools like vaccines and vector control being critical for success.
• The first dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV), was licensed in 2015, necessitating further evaluation of its public health impact and cost-effectiveness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To discuss the current status and utility of dengue transmission models for public health decision-making.
• To explore the role of mathematical modeling in evaluating population-level vaccine impact and economic aspects.
• To outline next steps for maximizing the use of mathematical models in dengue vaccine decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Convened a WHO meeting in December 2014 to review dengue transmission models.
• Discussed the application of mathematical modeling for assessing vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness.
• Focused on strategies for integrating modeling into public health decision-making for new dengue interventions.

Main Results:

• Mathematical modeling is a valuable tool for assessing the potential impact of new dengue vaccines.
• Modeling can address issues of public health impact and economic/financial aspects, especially with limited empirical data.
• There is a need to maximize the utility of mathematical models for informing dengue vaccine policy.

Conclusions:

• Mathematical modeling is essential for informing public health decisions regarding dengue vaccine implementation.
• Further development and application of dengue transmission models are needed to support evidence-based strategies.
• Collaboration and discussion are key to advancing the use of modeling in dengue control efforts.