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Area of Science:

  • Fisheries Science
  • Climate Science
  • Marine Ecology

Background:

  • Fishery management requires understanding climate variability's long-term ecological impacts.
  • New England cod populations have experienced prolonged and severe declines.
  • The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a significant climate pattern influencing marine ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Gulf of Maine cod biomass.
  • To investigate the interaction between NAO phases and cod population dynamics.
  • To assess how fishing practices influence the effects of NAO on cod stocks.

Main Methods:

  • Statistical analysis of historical data on cod biomass and NAO index.
  • Tracking the persistence of NAO-driven effects on cod cohorts over time.
  • Examining the combined influence of NAO and fishing on cod catch data.

Main Results:

  • Positive NAO phases account for 17% of the decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980.
  • A 1-unit increase in the NAO index correlates with a 17% decrease in age-1 cod biomass the following year.
  • Fishing practices amplify the negative effects of NAO on cod populations, reducing catch for up to 19 years.

Conclusions:

  • The NAO has a demonstrable and lasting negative impact on cod populations.
  • Observed NAO conditions can be integrated into cod stock forecasts for adaptive management.
  • The methodology can be applied to forecast other climate-sensitive fish populations.