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Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
Peter Alexander1,2, Reinhard Prestele3, Peter H Verburg3
1School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK.
Global Change Biology
|July 31, 2016
Summary
Land cover projections show high uncertainty, especially for future cropland areas. Model characteristics contribute significantly to this uncertainty, necessitating diverse modeling approaches for climate impact assessments.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Climate Change Research
- Land Use Modeling
Background:
- Accurate land cover projections are vital for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.
- Previous studies primarily focused on agro-economic models, limiting a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections across diverse model types and scenarios.
- To compare uncertainties arising from different modeling approaches versus scenario variations.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 75 simulations from 18 different land use models.
- Inclusion of a wider range of model types beyond traditional agro-economic models.
Main Results:
- Significant variability observed in projected land cover areas, particularly for future croplands.
- Modeling approach characteristics explain substantial differences in land cover projections, comparable to scenario variations.
- Land use projection uncertainty exceeds that typically included in climate and Earth system models.
Conclusions:
- A higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than previously recognized.
- Utilizing diverse models and approaches is crucial for assessing land cover change impacts on climate.
- Further research is needed to understand land use model assumptions and reduce projection uncertainty.
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