Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Demography

Background:

• Accurate forecasting of cause-specific mortality is crucial for estimating future disease burden.
• Understanding past trends (1983-2012) in Korea is essential for predicting future mortality (2013-2032).

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast cause-specific mortality in Korea for the period 2013-2032.
• To analyze trends based on historical data from 1983-2012.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a modified age-period-cohort model.
• Employed the R-based program, nordpred software, for forecasting.
• Analyzed 12 major causes of death and population data (observed and estimated).

Main Results:

• Age-standardized mortality rates are expected to decrease (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%) by 2028-2032.
• Crude mortality rates are projected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%), with a total increase in deaths (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%).
• Changes in age structure significantly contributed to the overall increase in deaths. Cancer, suicide, heart disease, pneumonia, and Alzheimer's disease are projected to increase, while cerebrovascular diseases, liver disease, diabetes, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and tuberculosis are projected to decrease. Cancer will remain the leading cause of death.

Conclusions:

• Despite declining age-standardized rates, increasing crude rates and total deaths necessitate attention.
• Shifting age structures are a major driver of future mortality trends.
• Future cause-specific mortality projections are vital for developing effective public health policies to mitigate disease burden.