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Spatial analysis and identification of high risk plague regions in Pakistan based on associated rodent species
Madiha Shabbir1, Maha Aleem, Sundus Javed
1COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan. madiha_shabbir46@yahoo.com.
Abstract:
Plague, caused by Yersinia pestitis, is an infectious bacterial disease that has a high fatality rate if untreated. Rodents are plague reservoirs and play an important role in disease spread. Plague cases have been reported extensively since the second pandemic from the 14th century in countries sharing borders with Pakistan, such as China and India, as well as nearby countries including Russia and central Asia. Despite being centrally located in a plague-infested geographical zone, there has been no plague incidence reported from Pakistan. This study aims to pinpoint some of the potentially important aspects of the disease, which have to be considered when assessing potential risk associated with a plague outbreak in Pakistan. In this context, the occurrence and distribution of plague-associated rodent reservoirs in different regions of Pakistan in relation to those found in the neighboring countries were mapped. In addition, the climatic factors that may also influence disease spread by affecting the growth of the bacteria are also discussed. The combined epidemiological and ecological surveillance studies suggest a prevalence of several potential rodent carriers in certain districts with the possibility of a plague outbreak in Pakistan.
Insights
Plague, a dangerous bacterial disease, has not been reported in Pakistan despite its proximity to endemic regions. This study identifies potential rodent carriers and environmental factors that could signal a future plague outbreak risk in Pakistan.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Zoonotic Diseases
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Plague, caused by *Yersinia pestis*, is a severe bacterial infection with high mortality if untreated.
- Rodents serve as reservoirs for plague, significantly influencing its transmission dynamics.
- Historically, plague outbreaks have been widespread in regions bordering Pakistan, yet Pakistan remains unrecorded.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the potential risk of a plague outbreak in Pakistan.
- To map the distribution of plague-associated rodent reservoirs in Pakistan and compare them with neighboring countries.
- To investigate climatic factors influencing bacterial growth and disease spread.
Main Methods:
- Epidemiological surveillance of plague.
- Ecological surveillance focusing on rodent populations.
- Geographical mapping of rodent reservoirs.
- Analysis of climatic data relevant to bacterial viability.
Main Results:
- Several potential rodent carriers of plague were identified in specific districts within Pakistan.
- The distribution of these rodent reservoirs was mapped and compared to adjacent plague-endemic areas.
- Climatic factors potentially conducive to plague transmission were discussed in the context of Pakistan's environment.
Conclusions:
- Pakistan harbors potential rodent reservoirs for plague, indicating a possible risk for future outbreaks.
- Combined epidemiological and ecological data suggest a need for heightened surveillance in identified high-risk districts.
- Understanding the interplay of rodent populations and climate is crucial for predicting and preventing plague in Pakistan.
