Predicting environmental risk: A road map for the future.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecotoxicology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Current environmental risk assessment (ERA) frameworks separate exposure and effects assessments.
• This separation, using mechanistic exposure models and descriptive statistics for effects, limits the realism and efficacy of ERA.
• A mechanistic link between exposure and effects is needed for accurate impact prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To discuss the importance of the individual level in effects assessment.
• To explore strategies for managing biological complexity in ERA.
• To integrate toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models, energy budgets, and molecular biology into a mechanistic ERA framework.

Main Methods:

• Review of current ERA practices and their limitations.
• Conceptual development of a mechanistic effects assessment approach.
• Integration of TKTD models, energy budgets, and molecular data for biological complexity.

Main Results:

• Identified the central role of the individual organism in mechanistic effects assessment.
• Proposed strategies for incorporating biological complexity into ERA.
• Outlined a revised ERA paradigm with a consistent mechanistic effects assessment.

Conclusions:

• A mechanistic approach to effects assessment is crucial for improving ERA.
• The proposed framework and roadmap can lead to a more scientific and efficient ERA process.
• Future research agendas should focus on developing and implementing mechanistic ERA.