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Is There a Free Lunch in Inference?

Jeffrey N Rouder1, Richard D Morey2, Josine Verhagen3

  • 1University of Missouri.

Topics in Cognitive Science
|August 5, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Psychology research faces a confidence crisis due to flawed inference. Valid hypothesis testing requires specifying the alternative hypothesis, not just the null, to avoid weak conclusions.

Keywords:
InferencePhilosophy of scienceReplication crisisStatistics

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Cognitive Science
  • Statistics

Background:

  • Psychology and cognitive science are experiencing a crisis of confidence.
  • A key issue is the default mode of inference: significance testing.
  • Significance testing is often perceived as a 'free lunch' method.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To address the logical problem in statistical inference within psychology.
  • To argue that significance testing is not a 'free lunch' method.
  • To demonstrate the necessity of specifying alternative hypotheses for valid inference.

Main Methods:

  • Examined the logical underpinnings of significance testing.
  • Applied principles of conventional and Bayesian probability.
  • Reviewed frequentist and Bayesian approaches to specifying alternative hypotheses.

Main Results:

  • Valid hypothesis testing necessitates testing the null against a well-specified alternative hypothesis.
  • Failure to specify the alternative can lead to rejecting the null hypothesis with insufficient evidence.
  • Specifying alternatives improves the robustness of statistical inference in both frequentist and Bayesian frameworks.

Conclusions:

  • The 'free lunch' property of significance testing is a misconception.
  • Researchers must specify alternative hypotheses for rigorous inference.
  • Sharpening the intellectual foundations of cognitive science research through improved inferential practices.