Projecting the Urology Workforce Over the Next 20 Years

Area of Science:

• Urology Workforce Analysis
• Healthcare Professional Forecasting
• Medical Staffing Projections

Background:

• The urology field faces evolving workforce dynamics.
• Understanding future staffing needs is crucial for patient care.
• Current trends suggest potential imbalances in the urology workforce.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast the size and composition of the urologist and advanced care provider (ACP) workforce over the next two decades.
• To project the future supply of urologists and ACPs.
• To identify potential workforce shortages in urology.

Main Methods:

• Utilized American Board of Urology certification and AUA Census data for current urologist estimates.
• Incorporated AUA residency match data for incoming urologists.
• Extracted ACP workforce data from the 2012 AUA Physician Survey.
• Employed a stock and flow population model for workforce projections.
• Calculated full-time equivalents (FTEs) based on workforce surveys.

Main Results:

• Overall urology workforce FTEs are expected to slightly increase from 14,792 in 2015 to 15,160 in 2035.
• A significant decline in urologist FTEs is projected, from 11,221 in 2015 to 8859 in 2035.
• ACP FTEs are anticipated to increase substantially, from 8,710 in 2015 to 15,369 in 2035.
• The proportion of female urologists is expected to rise from 7.0% to 18.6% by 2035.
• Forecasted workforce shortages range from 12% to 46% by 2035.

Conclusions:

• A projected decrease in urologists, coupled with increasing demand, suggests a potential inability to meet future healthcare needs.
• The study highlights an impending urology workforce shortage.
• Urgent discussion and strategic planning among urology leadership are necessary to address these challenges and develop innovative solutions.