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A Psychophysics Paradigm for the Collection and Analysis of Similarity Judgments
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The probabilistic no miracles argument.

Jan Sprenger1

  • 1Tilburg Center for Logic, Ethics and Philosophy of Science (TiLPS), Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands.

European Journal for Philosophy of Science
|August 12, 2016
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study reframes the No Miracles Argument (NMA) using probability, showing its strength varies by scientific field and theory stability. General critiques of the NMA are therefore misleading.

Keywords:
Base rate fallacyBayesian epistemologyNo miracles argumentScientific realismStability of scientific theories

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Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • Scientific Realism
  • Epistemology

Background:

  • The No Miracles Argument (NMA) is central to the scientific realism debate.
  • Existing critiques of the NMA often lack disciplinary specificity.
  • The probabilistic nature of scientific inference is not fully captured by traditional NMA formulations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a probabilistic formalization of the NMA.
  • To clarify and sharpen the NMA by analyzing its context-dependent persuasive force.
  • To address anti-realist objections, such as the base rate fallacy accusation.

Main Methods:

  • Probabilistic reconstruction of the No Miracles Argument.
  • Contextual analysis of the NMA's application across different scientific disciplines.
  • Formalization of the relationship between theory stability and NMA's persuasive power.

Main Results:

  • The persuasive force of the NMA is contingent on the specific scientific disciplinary context.
  • Theory stability within a discipline significantly influences the NMA's effectiveness.
  • General assessments of the NMA, divorced from context, are deemed misleading.

Conclusions:

  • The NMA's validity is context-dependent, not universally applicable.
  • This probabilistic approach refutes claims of the NMA committing the base rate fallacy.
  • Understanding the context-specific nature of the NMA explains persistent realist-anti-realist disagreements.