Related Experiment Video
Updated: Mar 16, 2026
Author Spotlight: Innovative Techniques and Future Directions in Stroke Research
Published on: May 5, 2023
Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study
Ying Wang1, Jing Liu, Wei Wang
1Department of Epidemiology, Beijing An Zhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, the Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Institute of Heart, Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing, China.
Insights
A new lifetime stroke risk model for Chinese adults shows that optimal blood pressure significantly lowers stroke risk. Maintaining healthy lifestyle choices dramatically reduces the likelihood of stroke, even with minor risk factor elevations.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular epidemiology
- Public health
- Stroke prevention
Background:
- Stroke is a leading cause of premature death in China.
- Current 10-year cardiovascular disease risk assessments are insufficient for early stroke risk differentiation in younger and middle-aged individuals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts.
- To assess stroke risk in the young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study (n=21,953) with 18 years of follow-up.
- Employed the Modified Kaplan-Meier method to estimate lifetime stroke risk up to age 80.
- Analyzed lifetime stroke risk based on major risk factors for individuals aged 35-60.
Main Results:
- Identified 917 first-ever stroke cases.
- Lifetime stroke risk at ages 35-40 was 18.0% for men and 14.7% for women.
- Blood pressure was the most significant predictor of lifetime stroke risk.
- Optimal risk factor management reduced stroke risk 8-10 fold compared to having two or more high-risk factors.
Conclusions:
- Lifetime stroke risk remains low in young and middle-aged Chinese adults with optimal major risk factors, particularly blood pressure.
- Even slight elevations in major risk factors substantially increase stroke risk.
- The developed lifetime risk model offers superior identification of stroke risk compared to traditional 10-year estimations.
Objective:
Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China.
Methods:
The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35-84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35-60 years.
Results:
A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35-40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8-10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35-60 years at baseline.
Conclusion:
In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation.
More Related Videos
07:30Evaluation of the Cognitive Performance of Hypertensive Patients with Silent Cerebrovascular Lesions
Published on: April 23, 2021
09:11Performing Permanent Distal Middle Cerebral with Common Carotid Artery Occlusion in Aged Rats to Study Cortical Ischemia with Sustained Disability
Published on: February 23, 2016
