An analysis of the incidence of measles in Turkey since 1960

The aims of this study were to evaluate measles incidence and the effect of elimination strategy interventions on the disease from 1960 to 2014 in Turkey. The administration of measles vaccine started in the rural regions in 1970; it was carried out as a campaign along with the National Vaccine Campaign in 1985, and it has been employed as combined measles, mumps, and rubella under the scope of the Measles Elimination Program (MEP) since 2006 in Turkey. While a dramatic decrease in the reporting of measles was observed between 2000 and 2010, the number of the cases has increased since 2011.

The time series of measles incidence was evaluated for possible structural changes with regression models using dummy variables, autocorrelated with error terms.

The incidence of measles showed a statistically significant decline between 1985 and 1988 (P = 0.0072) and between 2005 and 2011 (P < 0.0001). However, a statistically significant increase in incidence was noted after 2013 (P = 0.0008).

Over the last 54 years, the pattern of measles cases demonstrated a significant decline in incidence. However, the increase in incidence in 2013 should be carefully analyzed and interpreted in terms of the MEP.