Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Forestry

Background:

• Northern temperate and boreal regions face significant ecological and economic impacts from climate-influenced fire regimes.
• Historical fire management cost data (1980-2009) provides a baseline for assessing future wildfire impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project future wildfire area burned and associated suppression costs in Canada under various climate change scenarios.
• To assess the economic ramifications of altered fire regimes due to climate change.

Main Methods:

• Modeled area burned using a climate moisture index (CMI) and historical fire data.
• Estimated fire suppression costs as a function of projected area burned.
• Utilized Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions pathways.
• Incorporated a minimum fire return interval of 20 years to ensure ecological reasonableness.

Main Results:

• Projected average annual national fire management costs to increase to nearly $1 billion (60% real increase) under low emissions and $1.4 billion (119% real increase) under high emissions by the end of the century.
• Extreme annual costs (currently occurring once per decade) are projected to become commonplace (occurring biannually or more often) in many provinces.
• Significant increases in both wildfire extent and suppression costs are anticipated.

Conclusions:

• Current wildland fire management paradigms require re-evaluation to address projected drastic and untenable cost increases.
• Climate change poses a substantial threat to the economic stability of fire management in Canada.
• Adaptation strategies are crucial for managing future wildfire risks effectively.