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The optimist within? Selective sampling and self-deception.

Leslie van der Leer1, Ryan McKay2

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Self-deception is real, challenging deflationary accounts. This study shows individuals access less optimistic future representations than their estimates suggest, indicating genuine self-deception.

Keywords:
Crowd withinOptimism biasSelf-deceptionUnrealistic optimismWisdom of the crowd

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Philosophy of Mind

Background:

  • The existence of self-deception is debated, with classic views positing conflicting internal representations versus deflationary accounts suggesting distorted information processing.
  • Understanding the mechanisms of self-deception is crucial for cognitive and psychological research.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically investigate the nature of self-deception by contrasting classic and deflationary theoretical accounts.
  • To determine if individuals possess and selectively access different internal representations of reality.

Main Methods:

  • Adapted a "crowd-within" paradigm where participants provided two incentivized estimates for various questions.
  • Questions included neutral content and undesirable future events to assess differential estimation patterns.
  • Analyzed systematic differences between first and second estimates for neutral versus undesirable questions.

Main Results:

  • No systematic difference in estimates for neutral questions was observed.
  • Second estimates for undesirable future events were significantly more optimistic than first estimates.
  • This pattern suggests selective sampling from internal probability distributions.

Conclusions:

  • The findings support the existence of genuine self-deception, contradicting purely deflationary explanations.
  • Participants demonstrated access to a less optimistic internal representation of future prospects than their final estimates indicated.
  • Self-deception involves the selective use of internal information rather than solely distorted processing.