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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions.

Dana H Ikeda1,2, Tamara L Max3, Gerard J Allan1

  • 1Department of Biological Science, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86001, USA.

Global Change Biology
|August 21, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Incorporating population genetic structure into ecological niche models (ENMs) significantly improves species distribution predictions. Genetically informed ENMs (gENMs) enhance accuracy and reveal climate-driven niche divergence in species like Populus fremontii.

Keywords:
climate changeecological niche modelsecotypesfoundation speciesgenetic differentiationlocal adaptationniche divergencespecies distributions

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Conservation Genetics

Background:

  • Local adaptation is prevalent in species across environmental gradients.
  • Neutral genetic markers often covary with traits crucial for adapting to environmental shifts.
  • Understanding genetic influences on species distributions is vital for predicting climate change impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test if incorporating population genetic structure enhances the accuracy of ecological niche models (ENMs).
  • To investigate the role of local adaptation and genetic distinctiveness in species' responses to climate change.
  • To develop and apply genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs).

Main Methods:

  • Developed genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) for Populus fremontii.
  • Utilized population genetic structure data derived from neutral genetic markers.
  • Compared gENM predictions with traditional ENMs lacking genetic information.

Main Results:

  • gENMs demonstrated up to 12-fold greater accuracy in predicting population occurrences compared to non-genetic models.
  • Identified three distinct ecotypes associated with climate differences, based on genetic markers and local adaptation.
  • Forecasted increased geographic separation and niche divergence among ecotypes due to climate change.
  • Found that ecotypes with broader distributions and niche breadths were more resilient to climate change impacts.

Conclusions:

  • Integrating genetic information into ENMs significantly improves predictive accuracy for species distributions.
  • Genetic structure and local adaptation are critical factors influencing species' responses to climate change.
  • gENMs provide a more robust framework for forecasting species distributions under future climate scenarios.