A reverse factual analysis of the association between smoking and memory decline in China

Whether smoking accelerates memory recession has been a topic of significant research. However, randomised controlled trials are not easy to carry out, and does not comply with the ethics of research. And observation method which based on the most readily observed data is easy to draw the wrong conclusions without adjustment. The memory difference between smokers and non-smokers may not really represent the real differences between their memories.

In response to these limitations, we adopt propensity score method to match the samples and solve the estimated selection bias and confounding bias on elderlies aged 60 years and over based on Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (2011) data. The respondents are divided into non-smokers, people who used to smoke but not now, and people who used to smoke and still now. To balance the similarity between different groups on their propensity score weighted distributions of pretreatment covariates, we use generalized boosted models to estimate the multiply treatment propensity scores.

The results show that compared with non-smokers, people who used to smoke and still now respectively have a decrease 0.0283, 0.0735, 0.0091 on self-evaluation memory, daily living activities, and cognitive function. People who used to smoke but not now have a decrease 0.0224 on daily living activities, while have an increase 0.0054 and 0.0104 on self-evaluation memory, and cognitive function.

The PSM has considerable utility to control pre-treatment imbalances on observed covariates in non-randomised or observational data.