The SAMPL5 challenge for embedded-cluster integral equation theory: solvation free energies, aqueous pK _a, and...

We predict cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients (log D _7.4) for drug-like molecules taken from the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge by the "embedded cluster reference interaction site model" (EC-RISM) integral equation theory. This task involves the coupled problem of predicting both partition coefficients (log P) of neutral species between the solvents and aqueous acidity constants (pK _a) in order to account for a change of protonation states. The first issue is addressed by calibrating an EC-RISM-based model for solvation free energies derived from the "Minnesota Solvation Database" (MNSOL) for both water and cyclohexane utilizing a correction based on the partial molar volume, yielding a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.4 kcal mol^-1 for water and 0.8-0.9 kcal mol^-1 for cyclohexane depending on the parametrization. The second one is treated by employing on one hand an empirical pK _a model (MoKa) and, on the other hand, an EC-RISM-derived regression of published acidity constants (RMSE of 1.5 for a single model covering acids and bases). In total, at most 8 adjustable parameters are necessary (2-3 for each solvent and two for the pK _a) for training solvation and acidity models. Applying the final models to the log D _7.4 dataset corresponds to evaluating an independent test set comprising other, composite observables, yielding, for different cyclohexane parametrizations, 2.0-2.1 for the RMSE with the first and 2.2-2.8 with the combined first and second SAMPL5 data set batches. Notably, a pure log P model (assuming neutral species only) performs statistically similarly for these particular compounds. The nature of the approximations and possible perspectives for future developments are discussed.